Shift in Margin: 2020 U.S. Senate (Class II) → 2026 U.S. Senate
Apples-to-apples county margin shift compared with the prior election. Tap or hover any county or state to inspect 2004–2026 history & demographics.
Note: Republicans can win Senate control with only 50 seats, as Vice President JD Vance can vote to break ties. Party seat totals include third-party candidates who caucus with Democrats. Single-party/uncontested general elections are excluded from two-party shift arrows to prevent distortion.
Demographic & Community Breakdown: 2026 U.S. Senate
Vote-weighted two-party margins, vote shares, and shifts across U.S. Census county demographic tiers (Urbanicity, College Education, Household Income, and Race/Ethnicity). Click any county on the map above to inspect its individual Census profile & 2004–2026 voting history.
✓ Data Normalization & Zero Double-Counting Verification — 22 Years (2004–2026) Rectified Across 5 Disparate Sources
1. Concurrent Regular + Special Senate Deduplication
States holding simultaneous regular and special U.S. Senate elections on the same ballot (CA & NE in 2024; OK in 2022; GA in 2020) are strictly separated so county votes are never summed across two Senate races.
2. ME & NE Presidential CD Sub-Race Filtering
Maine and Nebraska Congressional District electoral-vote sub-races (ME-CD1/2, NE-CD1/2/3) are excluded from statewide and county Presidential aggregations so they never overwrite statewide margins or double-count counties.
3. Ranked-Choice (AK, ME) & Fusion-Ticket (NY, CT) Rectification
Historical feeds filter strictly to RCV Round 1 (preventing multi-round vote multiplication) and sum candidate fusion ballot lines (e.g., DEM + WFP, REP + CON) by unique candidate before computing two-party margins.
4. Split-County EEVP & Single-Party General Election Hygiene
Split-county U.S. House reporting percentages are weighted by expected vote, and Top-Two single-party general elections (Dem-vs-Dem or Rep-vs-Rep) and uncontested seats are flagged (`op=1`) so they never skew shift arrows or demographic shift averages.